Cctv newsAccording to China Weather Network, in September, the 13th typhoon "Kang Sen" and 14th typhoon "Candu" came into being in succession, and gradually approached China, and Candu was transformed into a super typhoon with four consecutive jumps in a short time. In the eyes of many people, summer is the most active season for typhoons, and it is also the most disaster-prone season for typhoons. In fact, the power and influence of autumn typhoons cannot be underestimated. China Weather Network specially counted the meteorological data from 1949 to 2020, and found that there were more "malicious roles" in autumn typhoons.

　　Landing time: Typhoon is still active in September, and typhoon in autumn should not be underestimated.

　　Usually, we call typhoons generated from June to August "summer typhoons" and typhoons generated from September to November "autumn typhoons". Statistics show that in the past 72 years, the number of typhoons generated in summer is 833, which is the most active season for typhoons, and there are also 821 typhoons generated in autumn, second only to summer.

　　Judging from the situation of landing in China, the influence of autumn typhoon can not be underestimated. The data from 1949 to 2020 show that there are about 4.43 typhoons landing in China every summer, which is the season with the most typhoons landing in China. Every autumn, an average of 2.36 typhoons land in China, which is the second active season for typhoons; The average number of typhoons landing in spring and winter each year is less than 0.2.

　　In autumn, September is the most active, with an average number of landings reaching 1.72, second only to August (1.94) and July (1.83), which are the most frequent typhoons, with little difference.

　　Landing point: the path is southerly. Typhoon prefers the area south of Zhejiang in autumn.

　　Compared with the summer typhoon, the landing place of the autumn typhoon landing in China is obviously southward. Meteorological big data shows that summer typhoons mostly land in Guangdong, Fujian, Taiwan Province, Zhejiang and other places, and it is not uncommon for typhoons to land in northern areas such as Liaoning, Shandong and Jiangsu. In autumn, the typhoon path is relatively south, and the landing points are mostly concentrated in South China. In the past 72 years, there have been basically no typhoons landing in the north of Jiangsu in autumn.

　　Taking September as an example, the typhoons that landed in China were concentrated in the south, and no typhoon landed in Jiangsu and its north. The most crowded places are Guangdong and Taiwan Province, followed by Fujian and Hainan, and the overall position is south.

　　Shi Yan, a meteorologist of China Weather Network, said that in autumn, the southward movement of typhoon landing point was related to the change of subtropical high position. Typhoons generally move along the periphery of the subtropical high. After entering September, the subtropical high gradually moves eastward and southward, and the typhoon is suppressed by the subtropical high, resulting in a southerly path. Therefore, autumn typhoons rarely affect Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning and other provinces with relatively northern geographical locations, and the influence scope is concentrated in South China.

　　Intensity: There are many typhoons in autumn, and the proportion of super typhoons is high.

　　Although the number of typhoons generated and landed in summer is the largest in a year, meteorological big data shows that typhoons in autumn are more likely to play a "tough role". From 1949 to 2020, among the typhoons generated in autumn, super typhoons accounted for 27.9%, much higher than 18% in summer.

　　Judging from the intensity of typhoons landing in China for the first time, autumn typhoons are obviously higher than summer typhoons. In summer, typhoons mostly landed in China at the level of tropical storm or strong tropical storm, and only 14.9% reached the level of strong typhoon or above; In autumn, the proportion reached 22.4%, which was significantly higher than that in summer.

　　Impact: The impact of the autumn typhoon on the cold air disaster escalated.

　　Historically, there have been several autumn typhoons that have had a serious impact on China. According to the meteorological data from 1949 to 2020, there were seven super typhoons landing in China in September in the past 72 years. Although the probability is not high, once encountered, they are extremely destructive.

　　The strongest typhoon that landed in China in September was the 14th typhoon "Marge" in 1973. According to the data of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the typhoon "Marge" landed in Qionghai, Hainan in the early morning of September 14th, with the maximum wind speed of 60m/s near the center and the lowest pressure of 925 hectopascals. According to Xinhua News Agency, the typhoon caused 926 deaths, 1,690 serious injuries and 4,470 minor injuries in Hainan Province, and 126,000 houses collapsed, causing heavy losses.

　　In addition, the recent typhoon "Moranti", the 14th in 2016, is also very powerful. After it landed in Xiamen, it pushed all the way to the northwest, and the storm cloud system spread to 11 provinces and cities such as Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu, with strong winds and heavy rains in many places.

　　Why is autumn typhoon so destructive? Shi Yan, a meteorologist of China Weather Network, said that since the vernal equinox, the direct point of the sun has moved from the equator to the Tropic of Cancer, which has heated the tropical ocean in the northern hemisphere, and the heat of seawater has accumulated continuously. Usually, the sea temperature reaches the highest from August to September, and high sea temperature is conducive to typhoon generation and energy enhancement. At the same time, from the end of August to the beginning of September, cold air becomes active, which increases the pressure gradient and the wind speed near the typhoon center, which is also beneficial to the typhoon intensity. Therefore, in autumn, the probability of strong typhoon or super typhoon is higher.

　　Shi Yan reminded that the "ferocity" of the autumn typhoon not only reflects the intensity of the typhoon, but also the impact of the disaster may escalate. Due to the increasing cold air in autumn, typhoons are more likely to encounter cold air, and "autumn typhoon+cold air" is a terrible combination. The combination of the two will often trigger violent precipitation, which will lead to greater disasters.

　　For example, the 13th typhoon "Miyu" in 2010 was generated in October, and did not directly land in Taiwan Province. It drilled into the South China Sea from bashi channel, and then landed in Zhangpu, Fujian. A large amount of warm and humid air transported by typhoon circulation met with cold air from the north to the south, and the terrain uplift of the central mountain range of Taiwan Province caused the precipitation in Suao, Yilan, eastern Taiwan Province to exceed 1,000 mm, and the Suhua Highway collapsed, resulting in many deaths or disappearances.

　　Difficulty in forecasting: It is more difficult to forecast the changeable track of typhoon in autumn.

　　Autumn typhoons are not only outstanding in strength, but also often strange and changeable in path. According to "The Best Typhoon in China" compiled by the Central Meteorological Observatory in 2015, three typhoons were listed as "the most complicated typhoons", including No.16 typhoon Wayne in 1986, No.19 typhoon Nat in 1991 and No.16 typhoon Nari in 2001. Among them, "Nate" and "Lily" are both produced in autumn, and the life cycle of "Wayne" is also in late summer and early autumn.

　　Route Map of Typhoon Nat No.19 in 1991

　　Route Map of Typhoon No.16 "Nari" in 2001

　　The path of autumn typhoon is more complicated and changeable, which is related to the weather system that affects autumn typhoon. Shao Peng, a meteorologist of China Weather Network, said that in autumn, such weather systems as westerlies, subtropical high and cold air play games with each other, regardless of the outcome, just like a "Xiong Haizi" is influenced and controlled by different "parents", so it becomes alternating between east and west, south and north, and the path is strange and changeable, which greatly improves the difficulty of prediction. Regardless of the difficulty or power of forecasting, autumn typhoons are full of "malicious roles" and their destructive power cannot be underestimated.

　　According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the 13th typhoon "Kang Sen" this year will approach the northern coast of Vietnam on the 13th through the offshore surface in the south of Hainan Island. The 14th typhoon "Candu" will move to the north after approaching the southern part of Taiwan Province Island, crossing the Taiwan Province Strait or passing the coast of Fujian and Zhejiang, entering the southern part of the East China Sea, and may also pass the eastern coast of Taiwan Province Island and move northward. Whether these two typhoons land or not, they will bring great storms to the southern coast of China, reminding the public in the relevant areas to pay attention to the approaching forecast and take preventive measures in advance. (Text/Zhang Hui Wang Wenwen Data Support/Shi Yan Shao Peng Design/Wei Lai Ren Chengying)

　　　　　　　　Early spring of 1967, the second year of the "Cultural Revolution". The 19-year-old Lu Zhi was only in high school for one year, and the school closed and made a revolution. In that crazy era, everything related to traditional culture was dismissed as the "four olds". Depressed but eager to find out the future fate, Lu Zhiji was introduced by a good friend’s mother and came to the home of a fortune teller who lived in an alley at the intersection of Chongqing Road in Huaihai Middle Road, Shanghai. In the depressed years, Lu Zhiji hoped to see a little bit of the future.

　　　　　　　　"In the dim light, the old man with silver hair calculated the horoscope for me. At that time, I talked for more than half an hour, and I can’t remember the specific content. But there are two sentences that are deeply imprinted in my mind. He said with a strong Ningbo accent,’ Brother, study hard. Just be 30 years old, and you will go abroad to study in the future. " Lu Zhiji recalled the past 40 years ago to The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) reporter, "Traveling abroad was almost impossible for me at that time. At that time, whether the high school courses could be completed became a problem, not to mention going abroad for further study, and my family had no overseas relations at all. "

　　　　　　　　In 1977, the ten-year "Cultural Revolution" ended, and the country resumed the college entrance examination system. In 1978, the enrollment system of the institute was reopened. In this year, Lu Zhiji obtained a master’s degree in Chinese Department of Fudan University with "equivalent academic ability". In 1978, I was just 30 years old, which was an important turning point in my life. Five years later, Lu Zhiji went to the University of Illinois in the United States to study for a doctorate in language.

　　　　　　　　"When I was sitting on a plane to the United States and saw the vast ocean from the window, I remembered the words of the old fortune teller. His prediction more than ten years ago was actually realized, which was incredible. How did he calculate it? From this time on, my curiosity about China’s traditional numerology rose in my heart. "After Lu Zhiji went to the United States, he began to study numerology. In 2008, Lu Zhiji completed and was published by Shanghai People’s Publishing House, which completely reviewed the development history of China’s numerology.

Book Seal of Lu Zhiji’s History of China’s Numerology

What is eight-character numerology?

　　　　　　　　In ancient China, there were two main schools to study personal destiny through birth time: eight-character numerology and "Ziwei Doushu" fortune-telling technique. The origin of the divination is often related to ancient astronomy, or to ancient astrology. In ancient times, whether in China or in the West, astrology and astronomy were often difficult to distinguish. However, eight-character numerology is not astrology, and Lu Zhiji defined it as a calculation system based on the natural ecological model with Yin-Yang and Five Elements as the core formed in ancient China.

　　　　　　　　The ancients used heavenly stems and earthly branches to mark time. Tiangan and Dizhi are referred to as "Ganzhi" for short. According to legend, it was founded by Da Nao’s family in the Yellow Emperor’s era. In Xiao Ji’s "The Five Elements of Righteousness: On the Name of Ganzhi" in the Sui Dynasty, it was recorded that "those who support Ganzhi are established because of the five elements. At the time of Xuanyuan in the past, it was created by Da Nao. " The ancients first used the ten days of "A, B, C, D, E, Ji, G, Xin, Ren and Gui" to mark the day; Use the twelve branches of "Zi, Ugliness, Yin, Mao, Chen, Si, Wu, Wei, Shen, You, Xu and Hai" to record the moon. The ancients used the method of matching a heavenly stem and a earthly branch in order to record the date, which is the "dry branch discipline method". Since the least common multiple of the ten-day stem and the twelve-day branch is 60, according to the combination cycle, there are 60 stem-branch combinations from Jiazi to Guihai, which is commonly known as "Sixty-one Jiazi".

　　　　　　　　The year, month, day and hour of a person’s birth can be arranged into eight characters according to the discipline of cadres and branches, and the eight characters are also called "four pillars". The so-called "four pillars" take heavenly stems and earthly branches, the year of a person’s birth, as the first pillar, heavenly stems and earthly branches in the month as the second pillar, heavenly stems and earthly branches in the day as the third pillar and heavenly stems and earthly branches in the hour as the fourth pillar. Therefore, China’s traditional numerology calls the method of calculating a person’s life’s fate "Pai birthdates" or "Pai Si Zhu".

　　　　　　　　The eight characters are arranged at 7: 00 pm on February 18 this year. This specific time period is: B Wei, E Yin, B Ugly, and C Xu. "If at this time, a newborn was born. When he heard his first cry, his birthdates was: B Wei, E Yin, B Ugly, C Xu. These eight words are the marks of the baby’s birth time. Any time in China tradition (called’ time’ in ancient times) can be expressed by such a combination of heaven and earth, and there is no mysterious color here. " Lu Zhiji said.

　　　　　　　　In the field of traditional numerology in China, the "eight characters" in a person’s birth period marked the changing state of the universe at that time, while the ancients believed that everything had natural laws such as "punishment, rushing, merging, transforming" and "five elements interacting with each other". The so-called good or bad fate refers to the interaction between these eight characters, and from this, people’s life can be calculated.

Wuxing shengketu

Where is the basis for the eight-character deduction of fate?

　　　　　　　　"It is necessary to talk about the concepts of Qi, Yin and Yang, and Five Elements, which is a unique way of thinking for ancient people in China to understand the world. In the eyes of the ancients in China,’ Qi’ is a subtle substance, which fills the boundless space. It has two states: being and being. The so-called "gas accumulation leads to formation, and gas dispersion leads to death" means that the concrete objects we can see and touch are the relatively stable condensed state of "gas"; The physical object is destroyed and can’t be seen, that is, its’ tangible’ quality has returned to the’ intangible’ gas. In modern terms,’ Qi’ is a kind of hidden energy and the material source of everything in the world. Although we don’t know its specific structure yet, didn’t the atomic theory of ancient Greek philosophers be confirmed after two thousand years? " Lu Zhiji said.

　　　　　　　　The root of the change of qi in heaven and earth comes from the power of yin and yang. Lu Zhiji said that the original meaning of "yin and yang" is very simple: "Yang" facing the sun and "Yin" facing away from the sun. "In fact, here has implied the relative relationship between the sun and the earth. Without sun movement, there would be no yin and yang. Without the movement of the sun, there is no way to talk about yin and yang. "

Taiji diagram representing yin and yang

　　　　　　　　The interaction of yin and yang produces "five elements"-gold, wood, water, fire and earth. At first, the five elements refer to five indispensable material resources in people’s lives, and later they evolved into the internal attributes and motion states of the five materials. "With the concept of Yin-Yang and Five Elements, the movement of" Qi "is concrete, showing a periodic change movement, which was described by heavenly stems and earthly branches in ancient times. For example: A is a male wood and B is a female wood; C is yang fire, D is yin fire, and so on. The state of Yin and Yang and five elements in each time period can be described by a group of stem and branch structures (eight characters). For example, the New Year’s Eve in this time period: B Wei, E Yin, B Ugly, C Xu, roughly speaking, is composed of two yin trees (B), one yang fire (C) and two yang earth. Therefore,’ fortune telling’ actually begins with calculating the gas field when an individual is born. "

Eight-character numerology forms a vein

　　　　　　　　"The traditional numerology, which calculates one’s destiny by the time of birth, began to take shape in the Three Kingdoms period," Lu Zhiji introduced.

　　　　　　　　At present, Guan Lu, a warlock of Cao Wei in the Three Kingdoms period, is the earliest record about the theory of fate that can be seen from ancient books and documents. "The History of the Three Kingdoms, Wei Shu" recorded his comments on his own destiny: "I have life’s core monuments in Yin, and I will be born at night with an eclipse of the moon. God bless the constant, you can’t violate it, but people don’t know it. Before and after my death, there were more than 100 people, and there was nothing wrong with it … I died in February next year, at the age of 48. "

　　　　　　　　Guan Lu wrote "life’s core monuments is in Yin", which means that he was born in the 15th year of Jian ‘an (209). He calculated his own time limit and predicted the death of more than 100 people, which is basically right. Guan Lu died in 256 at the age of 48.

　　　　　　　　The ancient people’s exploration of numerology was not slow. According to the biography of Dai Yang in the Book of Jin, Dai Yang saw Liu Yin, who was guarding Xunyang at that time, and told him not to see guests on Gengyin Day on December 22nd. He also told Liu Yin to take precautions, but Liu Yin didn’t take it seriously and was really killed by Guo Mo on that day. "We can already see the traces of inferring by using the animal year, the fleeting time and the relationship between the cadres and the branches of the days. Cha Liuyin was killed in the fifth year of Xianhe in the Eastern Jin Dynasty (220 years), and it was only more than 70 years since Guan Lu decided his life," Lu Zhiji said.

　　　　　　　　Lu Zhiji believes that in the Northern and Southern Dynasties, people have reached a consensus on the concept of destiny. "A large number of historical materials have been recorded, such as the’ Change of River and Yin’ in the Northern Dynasties." "Northern History Sun Shaochuan" records that Sun Shaoshan, who lives in a high position, pushes Lu’s life. One day I went to the early dynasty, but the east gate was not open, and the ministers waited in front of the door. Among many officials, Sun Shao pulled Xin Xiong, a doctor in the official department, aside and secretly told him: "All the people here are looking for death, but I and Qing still enjoy wealth" (everyone here will die, and only you and I can survive and enjoy wealth). Not long after, Hu Taihou of the Northern Wei Dynasty killed Emperor Xiaoming and gave birth to his youngest son, Yuan Zhao. Erzhurong, chieftain of Chihu tribe, used this as a reason to advance eastward, and Luoyang Shoujiang surrendered without fighting. Er Zhurong drowned Hu Taihou and his young emperor in Heyin (present-day Henan) and strangled more than 2,000 officials in the palace of the Northern Wei Dynasty, which is called "the change of Heyin" in history.

　　　　　　　　During the Northern and Southern Dynasties, there were also some numerology works. In Song Lian’s Debate on Lu Ming in the Ming Dynasty, it was pointed out: "Lin Xiaogong has Lu Ming Shu and Tao Hongjing has A Copy of Three Lives". "Tao Hongjing was a man between Qi and Liang in the Southern Dynasties, and Lin Xiaogong was circulated in the History of the North and Sui Shu. Both of them were proficient in Yin and Yang and the Five Elements, but it’s a pity that these two books have long been lost. Due to the lack of literature, although we can be sure that in the Southern and Northern Dynasties, there were activities of discussing fate in the sense of obedience, it is difficult to investigate what specific methods were used, "Lu Zhiji said.

　　　　　　　　During the Sui Dynasty, an important figure appeared in the history of numerology, that is, Xiao Ji, the founder of the Sui Dynasty, was born in the imperial clan of Qi and Liang Dynasties. After four dynasties and fifteen emperors, Xiao Ji was knowledgeable and knowledgeable, especially in yin and yang arithmetic. Xiao Ji’s main contribution lies in his book "Five Elements of Justice", which brings together the classics from pre-Qin to Sui Dynasty, Wei Shu and the ancient books of various schools of thought about the five elements theory and becomes an important document for future generations to understand and study the ancient five elements theory.

　　　　　　　　It was in the middle Tang Dynasty that numerology really formed a "model" and entered a new stage. Li Xuzhong is regarded as the first master in the field of numerology. In the first year of Li Xuzhong Tang Dezong, he was a scholar, and later an official went to the temple to advise the history. The epitaph written by Han Yu, a literary giant in the Tang Dynasty, for Li Xuzhong records that "(Virtual Middle School) is young and long, likes learning, and learning is all-pervasive. Deepest than the five-line book. Based on the year, month and day of a person’s life ….. pushing people to be premature, expensive and unfavorable, and never losing one or two. " It can be seen that Li Xuzhong is good at numerology deduction, and his name is heavy for a while.

　　　　　　　　"Li Xuzhong’s important contribution is that he created the first theoretical model of numerology. Because of this contribution, later generations regarded him as the originator of traditional numerology. Li Xuzhong’s Book of Destiny defines a basic framework for determining fate, and determines that the starting point for determining fate is based on years, and introduces the concepts of the fifth column’ fetal element’, Nayin Wuxing, Shensha, etc., in addition, it includes’ luck’, which can be divided into Universiade, Small Luck, Starting Luck, and Tai-sui fleeting time. I call this model’ the ancient method model’, which is different from the present one.

　　　　　　　　"At the end of the Southern Song Dynasty, the new numerology model began to show its outstanding head. In the early Ming Dynasty, it was the time when the ancient law model alternated with the new theory of life model in the later period. By the middle of the Ming Dynasty, the present law model had been formed and occupied the leading position in numerology, "Lu Zhiji introduced.

　　　　　　　　Eight-character numerology is also commonly known as "Zi Ping Shu" or "Zi Ping Numerology", which is named after another extremely important figure in the history of numerology-Xu Ziping. When and where Xu Ziping came from is still controversial. It is said that Xu Ziping once lived in seclusion in Huashan with Chen Tuan, a famous Taoist figure. "Through the textual research of historical materials, this kind of rumor may not necessarily conform to the facts. At present, it may be judged that he is a person of the Five Dynasties and the Early Song Dynasty. Xu Ziping’s contribution lies in the creation of a new model framework for numerology analysis, which I called’ Modern Law Model’ in China’s History of Numerology, and the basic framework of this model has been applied to today.

　　　　　　　　Li Xuzhong’s ancient law model, including the column of "fetal element", is actually a five-column theory of fate. Xu Ziping canceled this column and began to focus on the daily stem. The point of analysis was moved from the original annual column to the word "the daily stem", and a set of analysis programs was established based on this.

　　　　　　　　Lu Zhiji believes that this change from Nianzhu to Rizhu is also a projection of the realistic situation of historical evolution: "Since the Wei and Jin Dynasties, the China regime has been almost controlled by the aristocratic family, and the aristocratic family has a superior position in all aspects. The so-called’ top-grade cold family, inferior aristocratic family’ is such a portrayal, and personal background is of decisive significance. In numerology,’ Nianzhu’ stands for family origin. This reality is reflected in early numerology, and it is naturally based on’ Nianzhu’. After the Sui and Tang Dynasties, the gate valve was gradually destroyed, and the imperial examination system made it possible for civilians to enter the official career. Xu Ziping’s modern law model shifted the core of life to the’ Japanese column’ representing personal situation. "

Is the trajectory of life established?

　　　　　　　　"Eight-character numerology, in the final analysis, is to find and reveal the corresponding relationship between birth time, life potential and life trajectory of the birth person", Lu Zhiji emphasized: "We should pay attention to an important basic understanding: this corresponding relationship is not decisive, but only a probabilistic correlation, which is the result of a lot of observation, experience and statistics. There are many factors that affect a person’s growth and development, both innate and acquired. A person’s life course is closely related to his acquired environment: family, education, social politics and economic system. "

　　　　　　　　Lu Zhiji made an analogy with a moving car: Life seems to be a new car, and its specific performance and structure have been determined when it leaves the factory. For the individual’s "life", there is also "luck". "Yun" is the road the car will travel. The car running on the road is the interaction between fate and luck. In the eyes of the ancients, it is the interaction between fate and luck, showing a colorful trajectory of life ups and downs.

　　　　　　　　"Eight-character numerology is developed into a system to describe this correspondence under the thinking mode of the ancient theory of Yin-Yang and Five Elements, and there is no mystery. If this correspondence is exaggerated as a decisive relationship, it will lead to a fatalistic view, but it will lead numerology astray. Therefore, it is expected that the prediction of numerology will be accurate, which is either a commercial banner to set up a fortune teller to attract business, or an idiot’s dream. "Lu Zhiji said that the ancients in China were not so superstitious.

　　　　　　　　Wang Chong in the Eastern Han Dynasty wrote in "On the Balance of Life and Righteousness": "Song, Wei, Chen and Zheng suffered disasters on the same day, and the people of the four countries will have people who have prospered but have not declined. However, all disasters will bring disaster to the country. The life of the country is better than life, and life expectancy is better than life. " That is to say, the four countries of Song, Wei, Chen and Zheng suffered disasters on the same day. Are all the people of the four countries in bad luck? Obviously impossible, when the national destiny that dominates the big environment comes into play, the rise and fall of personal destiny is completely meaningless.

　　　　　　　　There are many people born at the same time in the same year, the same month and the same day in the world. Are their fates exactly the same? This is the most common question people have about horoscope fortune telling. Lu Zhiji said that Wan Mingying, the author of the Ming Dynasty numerology masterpiece "Three Fates Meeting", answered this question. "There are indeed differences. Wan Mingying collected a large number of life cases born at the same time for comparison. For example, officials born at the same time not only have different official positions, but also have different time and way of death."

　　　　　　　　"So Liang Xiangrun, a modern numerologist, wrote in A Brief History of Life that numerology only has a probability of 60% to 70%." Lu Zhiji said: "The space-time structure of human birth is related to life information, which is a great hypothesis of Chinese ancestors. The rational exploration of numerology in the past two thousand years is essentially an empirical study of this hypothesis. Traditional numerology has existed in folk culture for a long time, and it lacks systematic arrangement. In the process of development, it is inevitable to mix with some mysterious veil of superstition and deception methods of charlatans. Because of this, it is very important to reorganize the spiritual blood of our own ancient culture. "